Application of fuzzy logic to model trip generation phase of sequential travel demand analysis

Abstract

Sequential travel demand analysis consists of four phases, namely, trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and route assignment. Although, the later three phases are supported with quite sufficient number of efficient models; the first one, i.e., trip generation being completely based on human decision making is not supported with any efficient model. Existing models on trip generation are deterministic in nature and cannot capture the inherent vagueness of human mind regarding trip choice. Generally, the models of trip-generation include variables which reflect the number of potential trip-makers and the propensity of potential trip-makers to make a trip. However, none of the present models incorporate variables which reflect the accessibility factor. This is possibly the single largest factor as to why trip-generation models cannot very well predict the number of trips generated. It is intended to apply fuzzy logic, which is a linguistic tool to capture the imprecise nature of human mind regarding trip decision. Also, existing models on trip generation do not cover important premise variables controlling trip generation. In the proposed model it is intended to embed it properly.
To validate the developed model empirical data is used.